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Title: Reducing the risk and improving mission success for NASA's Human Mission to a Near-Earth Asteroid : how many robotic surveyors?
Authors: Smith, Jeffrey H.
Lincoln, William P.
Weisbin, Charles R.
Keywords: Near-Earth Asteroid
optimizing number of survyors
decision analysis
man space flght
Issue Date: 27-Sep-2011
Publisher: Pasadena, CA : Jet Propulsion Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2011.
Citation: AIAA SPACE 2011 Conference & Exposition, Long Beach, California, September 27-29, 2011
Abstract: NASA's recent attention and interest in sending a human mission to land on a Near-Earth asteroid raises the question of need for a robotic surveyor. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending (versus not sending) one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The probability of finding an asteroid suitable for landing was derived from an analysis of more than 1200 asteroids in order to define a quantitative estimate of suitability. The low cost of the surveyors relative to the human mission underlined the multi-surveyor strategy as relatively inexpensive insurance against the risks of encountering an unsuitable asteroid for landing on arrival by a human mission.
Appears in Collections:JPL TRS 1992+

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