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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2014/42246
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| Title: | Reducing the risk and improving mission success for NASA's Human Mission to a Near-Earth Asteroid : how many robotic surveyors? |
| Authors: | Smith, Jeffrey H.
Lincoln, William P.
Weisbin, Charles R. |
| Keywords: | Near-Earth Asteroid
optimizing number of survyors
decision analysis
man space flght |
| Issue Date: | 27-Sep-2011 |
| Publisher: | Pasadena, CA : Jet Propulsion Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2011. |
| Citation: | AIAA SPACE 2011 Conference & Exposition, Long Beach, California, September 27-29, 2011 |
| Abstract: | NASA's recent attention and interest in sending a human mission to land on a Near-Earth asteroid raises the question of need for a robotic surveyor. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending (versus not sending) one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The probability of finding an asteroid suitable for landing was derived from an analysis of more than 1200 asteroids in order to define a quantitative estimate of suitability. The low cost of the surveyors relative to the human mission underlined the multi-surveyor strategy as relatively inexpensive insurance against the risks of encountering an unsuitable asteroid for landing on arrival by a human mission. |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2014/42246 |
| Appears in Collections: | JPL TRS 1992+
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